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Are Irish jobs safe with Bush?
BERTIE Ahern is a relieved man. No, the opinion polls are not showing a sudden huge surge in his popularity. Nor are his opponents toning down their ever more frequent attacks on his leadership of Ireland.
So what’s put a new spring in his step? Just one thing — the re-election of George Bush as President of America.
While many commentators in both Britain and Ireland were bemoaning Bush’s surprisingly large victory and wringing their hands in horror at what the next few years may bring in terms of American foreign policy, the Taoiseach had an unusually simple and straightforward comment on the election.
The re-election of George Bush was better for Ireland in terms of American investment, jobs and trade, he decreed.
Mr. Ahern’s logic was clear. Had John Kerry got in, he would have taxed American multi-nationals abroad — something that would have had a significant negative impact on the Irish economy.
What the Taoiseach failed to say was that it may yet happen anyway. For Bush is back in charge of a country with huge economic problems.
It makes little sense for him to give tax advantages on investment exported from America — particularly at a time when unemployment is high and rising, wages are stagnant and countries like Ireland, where the investment is made, are offering tax incentives as well.
John Kerry made it clear he wanted jobs in America and not in Ireland and the other parts of the world that benefit from multi-national investment.
If Bush is to solve his economic problems and win the trust of those most hurt by firms investing in
labor abroad, he may decide he must do the same.
For what Mr. Ahern overlooks is that the mandate given to Bush by the American electorate is to do whatever is needed to protect the country’s security and prosperity.
It is a mandate to continue pursuing the war on terror, carry on as before in Iraq and confront Iran over its nuclear capabilities.
It is also a mandate to take whatever economic measures are necessary to protect American jobs and salary levels.
If that means a protectionist agenda that mitigates against US firms pouring large amounts of investment into foreign countries where
labor is cheaper and tax incentives are greater than that is the road he will go down.
What is more, he will probably pursue this agenda with more determination and less negotiation or room for manoeuvre than John Kerry would have done.
Mr. Ahern is right when he says Ireland is massively dependant on American investment. Despite the huge gains made through the Celtic Tiger economy it is still true that when America sneezes Ireland catches a cold.
Where he may be wrong is when he says a Bush victory is better for Ireland than a Kerry one. Only time will tell on that score.
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